While many makers of LED chips and light products expect the global LED lighting market to take off in 2012, Taiwan-based LED chipmaker Epistar thinks that the takeoff may start in 2010, according to the company.

Royal Philips Electronics expects the value of the LED lighting industry to exceed the value of the traditional lighting industry in 2015, when the ASPs for LED lighting products are expected to drop to 10% of the current prices. Delta Electronics expects the prices of LED lighting products to drop to US$10-20 in 2011. Panasonic aims for revenues of 100 billion yen (US$1.1 billion) for its lighting business in 2015, of which LED lighting will account for 30%, market observers noted.

But Epistar noted that judging from the Lighting+Building 2010 show in Frankfurt, Germany, all major players have geared up for the LED lighting market. LEDs will soon establish a firm place in the lighting market, just like what is happening in the LCD TV market, said Epistar.

LED light bulbs accounted for 13% of Japan's light bulb market in March 2010, up from 7% in January and 5% in November 2010, according to GfK.

Although prices of LED lighting products are significantly higher than conventional ones, LED products use less power and have longer product life.

A research firm has commented that 54% of the consumers think pricing under US$5 for LED light bulbs is acceptable, and the price for 1,000 lumen per watt is expected to drop to US$5 in 2014.

But Digitimes Research expects price for 1,000 lumens per watt will drop to US$5.3 as early as 2011 as a result of competition and improved technologies.